ARMY
BLACK KNIGHTSARMY
5-7 | Road
63
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
6-5 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK KNIGHTS
100%
RETRIEVERS
0%
BLACK KNIGHTS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
ARMY By 1-7 points
2.7%
ARMY By 8-14 points
0.5%
UMBC By 1-7 points
10.7%
UMBC By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Army
67
ARMY
UMBC
85
UMBC
Simulated Score
Army
68
ARMY
UMBC
72
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 12, 2025
ARMY @ UMBC
63 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+202.8% more
UMBC: 3.3
vs
Army: 1.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.4%
UMBC: 83.5%
vs
Army: 77.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
UMBC: 50.1%
vs
Army: 45.9%
Steals (L5)
+43.6% more
Army: 7.1
vs
UMBC: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score
67.0
63
UMBC Score
85.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 41.0
29.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.9 / 20.8
12.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.3 / 1.1
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 45.9
40.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
83.5 / 77.0
38.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 41.9
37.0 / 43.0
Steals
4.0 / 7.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 13.3
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.3
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
ARMY
UMBC
ARMY
ML
58%
18-13
44%
14-18
55%
17-14
50%
16-16
ATS
68%
21-10
44%
14-18
55%
17-14
50%
16-16
TTL
39%
12-19
81%
26-6
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
