Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Musketeers MOST @ XAV

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

4-4  |  Road

57
FINAL
Fri, Dec 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

7-3  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
MUSKETEERS
0%
BEARS --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Xavier)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

13.6%

Musketeers Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around XAV -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

MOST By 1-7 points

9.3%

MOST By 8-14 points

2.7%

XAV By 1-7 points

21.6%

XAV By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MISSOURI STATE
90
XAVIER
Simulated Score
72
MISSOURI STATE
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Musketeers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 12, 2025 MOST @ XAV 57 - 75
Nov 15, 2019 MOST @ XAV 56 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +59.1% more
Xavier: 20.3 vs Missouri State: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +22.0% more
Xavier: 38.6 vs Missouri State: 31.6
Blocks (L5) +21.1% more
Xavier: 3.9 vs Missouri State: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +42.1% more
Missouri State: 11.6 vs Xavier: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 79.0 57
XAV Score 90.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 36.3 40.0 / 21.0
Assists 20.3 / 12.8 23.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.2 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 46.2 43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 65.6 / 65.9 58.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 31.6 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.7 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 6.7 / 11.6 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
MOST
XAV
MOST
ML
58% 19-14
65% 22-12
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
ATS
73% 24-9
68% 23-11
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
TTL
39% 13-20
44% 15-19
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 21 hours, 8 minutes ago
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 8 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 22 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 14 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 3 hours ago