EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
8-2 | Road
75
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
4-5 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
GOVERNORS
100%
BUCCANEERS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (East Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ETSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)
ETSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
ETSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
APSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
APSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
East Tennessee State
65
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Austin Peay
59
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
East Tennessee State
69
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Austin Peay
74
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Buccaneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Buccaneers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 12, 2025
ETSU @ APSU
75 - 76
Nov 30, 2024
APSU @ ETSU
57 - 79
Nov 26, 2020
APSU @ ETSU
67 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.5% more
East Tennessee State: 4.4
vs
Austin Peay: 2.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.7% more
East Tennessee State: 39.1
vs
Austin Peay: 33.4
Turnovers (L5)
+10.1% more
East Tennessee State: 12.6
vs
Austin Peay: 11.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
East Tennessee State: 48.7%
vs
Austin Peay: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score
65.0
75
APSU Score
59.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 33.3
33.0 / 29.0
Assists
16.3 / 16.7
17.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.1 / 4.4
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 48.7
40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 70.1
88.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 39.1
37.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.9 / 9.6
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 12.6
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
ETSU
APSU
ETSU
ML
53%
16-14
42%
14-19
59%
16-11
70%
23-10
ATS
57%
17-13
58%
19-14
59%
16-11
70%
23-10
TTL
57%
17-13
45%
15-18
100%
27-0
100%
33-0
