Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Vaqueros UTA @ RGV

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

6-3  |  Road

58
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 7:30 PM ET
UTRGV Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

3-5  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
VAQUEROS
0%
MAVERICKS --
VAQUEROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UT Rio Grande Valley)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 VaquerosRGV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

42.1%

Vaqueros Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RGV -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)

UTA By 1-7 points

23.0%

UTA By 8-14 points

12.2%

RGV By 1-7 points

26.8%

RGV By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UT ARLINGTON
75
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
71
UT ARLINGTON
74
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vaqueros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vaqueros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vaqueros (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Vaqueros (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 UTA @ RGV 58 - 50
Feb 17, 2024 UTA @ RGV 89 - 70
Jan 18, 2024 RGV @ UTA 73 - 91
Feb 9, 2023 UTA @ RGV 64 - 58
Jan 19, 2023 RGV @ UTA 73 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +36.8% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 13.4 vs UT Arlington: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.3% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 39.6 vs UT Arlington: 35.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 30.8% vs UT Arlington: 25.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 73.7% vs UT Arlington: 69.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 73.0 58
RGV Score 75.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 25.4 30.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.4 / 9.8 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.9 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 44.1 38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 69.5 73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 35.9 25.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.6 / 8.5 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 13.5 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
RGV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
UTA
RGV
UTA
ML
53% 16-14
50% 16-16
54% 15-13
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 16-14
59% 19-13
54% 15-13
62% 20-12
TTL
60% 18-12
53% 17-15
100% 28-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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