CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
18-9-2 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
18-9-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brandon Bussi
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi | None-None | 1.85 | 0.920 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.85 | 0.949 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.85
GAA
1.85
0.920
Save %
Ldr 0.949
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
CAPITALS
0%
HURRICANES
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
CAR By 1 goal
12.1%
CAR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Carolina
2
CAROLINA
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Carolina
2
CAROLINA
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 2, 2026
WSH @ CAR
5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026
CAR @ WSH
3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025
WSH @ CAR
4 - 1
May 15, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+43.1% more
Washington: 15.6
vs
Carolina: 10.9
Takeaways (L5)
+31.9% more
Carolina: 6.4
vs
Washington: 4.4
Power Play % (L5)
+5.6%
Carolina: 22.4%
vs
Washington: 16.8%
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.5%
Carolina: 51.5%
vs
Washington: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAR Score
2.0
3
WSH Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.6 / 10.9
21.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
49.9 / 51.5
34.8 / 65.2
Hits
17.1 / 16.0
21.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
1676.0 / 2239.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.0 / 32.0
25.0 / 39.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 6.4
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CAR
WSH
CAR
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
TTL
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
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