ARMY
ARMYARMY
6-5 | Road
16
NAVY
NAVYNAVY
9-2 | Home
17
Key Game
KEY GAME
Dawson Jones
#95 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Jacob Carlson
#11 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Dawson Jones | None-None |
| Jacob Carlson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
0%
NAVY
100%
ARMY
--
NAVY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Army)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARMY -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)
ARMY By 1-6 points
5.3%
ARMY By 7-13 points
11.3%
NAVY By 1-6 points
2.2%
NAVY By 7-13 points
0.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Army
38
ARMY
Navy
13
NAVY
Simulated Score
Army
14
ARMY
Navy
17
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Army
Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim
Navy
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Army (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
B
Sim
Navy (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 31.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
ARMY @ NAVY
16 - 17
Dec 14, 2024
NAVY @ ARMY
31 - 13
Dec 9, 2023
ARMY @ NAVY
17 - 11
Dec 10, 2022
NAVY @ ARMY
17 - 20
Dec 11, 2021
ARMY @ NAVY
13 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+65.0% more
Navy: 1.0
vs
Army: 0.4
Total Yards (L5)
+24.6% more
Navy: 380.0
vs
Army: 305.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+11.1% more
Navy: 263.3
vs
Army: 237.1
First Downs (L5)
+11.0% more
Navy: 19.9
vs
Army: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score
38.0
16
NAVY Score
13.0
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.9 / 17.9
17.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards
263.3 / 237.1
190.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.61 / 0.3
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.6
0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards
380.0 / 305.0
272.0 / 202.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 0.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 13.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
NAVY
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
Advantage
1-2-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 13.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
NAVY
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
ARMY
NAVY
ARMY
ML
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
100%
4-0
75%
3-1
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
TTL
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
UAB Rallies Past Navy 24-20 Behind McReynolds' Late 48-Yard Touc…
Army QB Cale Hellums Earns Spot on 2026 Maxwell Award Preseason …
Tripp Johansen at Montana State official visit
Most Big 12 football teams are selling beer. Why not the Wildcat…