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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

17-11-2  |  Road

8
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Prudential Center
View Odds Details →

NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

17-12-1  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Luke Glendening
GOALTENDER

Luke Glendening

#11 | C
@
Jake Allen
GOALTENDER

Jake Allen

#34 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Luke Glendening None-None -- -- --
Jake Allen None-None 5.77 0.821 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 5.77
-- Save % 0.821
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
DEVILS
0%
LIGHTNING --
DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW JERSEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Jersey)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 DevilsNJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Devils Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NJ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NJ)

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

NJ By 1 goal

19.7%

NJ By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
NEW JERSEY
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
3
NEW JERSEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Devils Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Devils (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 TB @ NJ 8 - 4
Nov 18, 2025 NJ @ TB 1 - 5
Oct 11, 2025 NJ @ TB 5 - 3
Jan 11, 2025 TB @ NJ 2 - 3
Nov 16, 2024 NJ @ TB 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +20.0% more
New Jersey: 13.6 vs Tampa Bay: 11.3
Faceoff % (L5) +6.2%
New Jersey: 48.5% vs Tampa Bay: 42.3%
Hits (L5) +14.2% more
Tampa Bay: 20.0 vs New Jersey: 17.2
Power Play % (L5) +11.0%
Tampa Bay: 16.3% vs New Jersey: 5.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.0 8
NJ Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.6 / 11.3 13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 48.5 / 42.3 48.5 / 51.5
Hits 17.2 / 20.0 32.0 / 15.0
Power Play % 5.3 / 16.3 33.3 / 66.7
Shots on Goal 29.8 / 29.9 37.0 / 35.0
Takeaways 4.9 / 4.6 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
9%MONEY91%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJ
TB
NJ
TB
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
0% 0-2-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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