IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
8-1 | Road
62
IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
9-0 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
0%
CYCLONES
100%
HAWKEYES
--
CYCLONES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ISU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)
IOWA By 1-7 points
27.2%
IOWA By 8-14 points
23.0%
ISU By 1-7 points
18.6%
ISU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
83
IOWA
Iowa State
78
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
Iowa
74
IOWA
Iowa State
77
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawkeyes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cyclones
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cyclones (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Cyclones (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 11, 2025
IOWA @ ISU
62 - 66
Dec 12, 2024
ISU @ IOWA
89 - 80
Dec 7, 2023
IOWA @ ISU
65 - 90
Dec 8, 2022
ISU @ IOWA
56 - 75
Dec 9, 2021
IOWA @ ISU
53 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.2% more
Iowa State: 3.5
vs
Iowa: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+36.4% more
Iowa State: 21.0
vs
Iowa: 15.4
Steals (L5)
+22.6% more
Iowa State: 10.5
vs
Iowa: 8.5
Rebounding (L5)
+16.3% more
Iowa State: 33.6
vs
Iowa: 28.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
83.0
62
ISU Score
78.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
49.6 / 39.3
33.0 / 47.0
Assists
21.0 / 15.4
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.3
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
57.4 / 47.9
42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
69.4 / 63.5
74.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 28.9
28.0 / 31.0
Steals
10.5 / 8.5
11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 10.1
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
IOWA
ISU
IOWA
ML
57%
21-16
59%
22-15
76%
26-8
78%
28-8
ATS
62%
23-14
76%
28-9
76%
26-8
78%
28-8
TTL
54%
20-17
57%
21-16
100%
34-0
100%
36-0
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