Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pelicans POR @ NO

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

9-15  |  Road

120
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-22  |  Home

143
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

93.3%

Pelicans Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

15.3%

POR By 8-14 points

25.3%

NO By 1-7 points

4.8%

NO By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
PORTLAND
110
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
107
PORTLAND
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 NO @ POR 106 - 118
Jan 2, 2026 POR @ NO 122 - 109
Dec 11, 2025 POR @ NO 120 - 143
Nov 12, 2025 POR @ NO 125 - 117
Jan 8, 2025 POR @ NO 119 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
Portland: 19.7 vs New Orleans: 12.3
Blocks (L5) +36.8% more
Portland: 6.0 vs New Orleans: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
Portland: 45.5 vs New Orleans: 38.3
Assists (L5) +32.0% more
New Orleans: 29.9 vs Portland: 22.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 125.0 120
NO Score 110.0 143
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 34.9 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 29.9 / 22.6 36.0 / 27.0
Blocks 3.8 / 6.0 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 42.3 52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 84.7 / 81.8 88.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 45.5 57.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.4 / 6.6 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 19.7 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
POR
NO
POR
ML
62% 98-61
53% 56-49
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 65-39-1
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
TTL
75% 119-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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