Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Kings DEN @ SAC

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

17-6  |  Road

136
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

6-18  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
NUGGETS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Sacramento)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

1.1%

Kings Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

DEN By 1-7 points

0.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.1%

SAC By 1-7 points

4.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
89
DENVER
112
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
110
DENVER
122
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.5 Loss
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +31.6% more
Sacramento: 9.0 vs Denver: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Sacramento: 5.0 vs Denver: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +21.9% more
Sacramento: 14.0 vs Denver: 11.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Sacramento: 43.4 vs Denver: 39.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 89.0 136
SAC Score 112.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 43.4 29.0 / 41.0
Assists 25.3 / 29.1 21.0 / 35.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.1 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 53.1 45.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 78.5 70.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 39.6 38.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.0 / 6.9 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 11.5 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DEN
SAC
DEN
ML
55% 55-45
54% 57-48
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38-2
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
TTL
58% 57-42-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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