Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Bobcats SOU @ TXST

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

4-6  |  Road

83
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 8:30 PM ET
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

7-5  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
JAGUARS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Texas State)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 BobcatsTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

0.2%

Bobcats Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

SOU By 1-7 points

0.1%

SOU By 8-14 points

0.0%

TXST By 1-7 points

1.4%

TXST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
51
SOUTHERN
80
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 SOU @ TXST 83 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
Texas State: 4.6 vs Southern: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Texas State: 39.2 vs Southern: 35.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Texas State: 72.5% vs Southern: 66.9%
Assists (L5) +25.3% more
Southern: 16.0 vs Texas State: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 51.0 83
TXST Score 80.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 37.6 41.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.9 / 16.0 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 47.4 52.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 66.9 74.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 35.9 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.7 / 10.8 13.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 13.4 19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
TXST Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
SOU
TXST
SOU
ML
42% 13-18
67% 22-11
83% 25-5
70% 21-9
ATS
48% 15-16
64% 21-12
84% 26-5
70% 21-9
TTL
65% 20-11
42% 14-19
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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