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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

6-7  |  Road

15
FINAL
Mon, Dec 15 • 8:15 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

7-6  |  Home

28
Key Game
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Riley Patterson None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
STEELERS
0%
DOLPHINS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Pittsburgh)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

15.9%

Steelers Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

MIA By 1-6 points

7.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

4.7%

PIT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MIAMI
20
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 26.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2025 MIA @ PIT 15 - 28
Oct 23, 2022 PIT @ MIA 10 - 16
Oct 28, 2019 MIA @ PIT 14 - 27
Jan 8, 2017 MIA @ PIT 12 - 30
Oct 16, 2016 PIT @ MIA 15 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Pittsburgh: 201.6 vs Miami: 147.8
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1 vs Miami: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Miami: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.7% more
Miami: 181.1 vs Pittsburgh: 78.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 6.0 15
PIT Score 20.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.0 / 19.5 22.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 201.6 / 147.8 201.0 / 222.0
Rushing Yards 78.5 / 181.1 135.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 280.1 / 328.9 336.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.6 5.4 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIA
PIT
MIA
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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