Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Giants WSH @ NYG

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-10  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

2-11  |  Home

21
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Deonte Banks
KEY GAME

Deonte Banks

#2 | Cornerback
Player
Tress Way None-None
Deonte Banks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
COMMANDERS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New York)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 GiantsNYG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

30.9%

Giants Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

WSH By 1-6 points

12.9%

WSH By 7-13 points

9.6%

NYG By 1-6 points

16.5%

NYG By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
WASHINGTON
27
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ NYG 29 - 21
Sep 7, 2025 NYG @ WSH 6 - 21
Nov 3, 2024 WSH @ NYG 27 - 22
Sep 15, 2024 NYG @ WSH 18 - 21
Nov 19, 2023 NYG @ WSH 31 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.4% more
New York: 223.6 vs Washington: 179.7
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
New York: 347.8 vs Washington: 307.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.1% more
New York: 5.4 vs Washington: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +43.4% more
Washington: 1.9 vs New York: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 20.0 29
NYG Score 27.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 18.9 22.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 223.6 / 179.7 238.0 / 195.0
Rushing Yards 124.2 / 127.5 146.0 / 145.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 347.8 / 307.1 384.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.0 5.7 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
WSH
NYG
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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