Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Patriots BUF @ NE

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

9-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

11-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Deone Walker
KEY GAME

Deone Walker

#96 | Defensive Tackle
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Deone Walker None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
BILLS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (New England)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

21.6%

Patriots Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

BUF By 1-6 points

10.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

6.6%

NE By 1-6 points

14.7%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19
BUFFALO
30
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
17
BUFFALO
27
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 NE @ BUF 29 - 26
Dec 14, 2025 BUF @ NE 35 - 31
Oct 5, 2025 NE @ BUF 23 - 20
Jan 5, 2025 BUF @ NE 16 - 23
Dec 22, 2024 NE @ BUF 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.2% more
New England: 267.8 vs Buffalo: 210.6
Turnovers (L5) +67.2% more
Buffalo: 1.8 vs New England: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.3% more
Buffalo: 174.6 vs New England: 114.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 19.0 35
NE Score 30.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.3 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 267.8 / 210.6 139.0 / 181.0
Rushing Yards 114.7 / 174.6 246.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 382.5 / 385.2 385.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 6.1 7.5 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
BUF
NE
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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