Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Chiefs LAC @ KC

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

9-4  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 1:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-7  |  Home

13
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
📊
CHIEFS
100%
CHARGERS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

38.8%

Chiefs Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LAC By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

18.0%

KC By 1-6 points

14.7%

KC By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
LOS ANGELES
16
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 36.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 LAC @ KC 16 - 13
Sep 5, 2025 KC @ LAC 21 - 27
Dec 8, 2024 LAC @ KC 17 - 19
Sep 29, 2024 KC @ LAC 17 - 10
Jan 7, 2024 KC @ LAC 13 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.7% more
Los Angeles: 143.6 vs Kansas City: 119.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +52.8% more
Kansas City: 229.5 vs Los Angeles: 150.2
Total Yards (L5) +18.8% more
Kansas City: 349.1 vs Los Angeles: 293.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 20.0 16
KC Score 16.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 17.7 17.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 229.5 / 150.2 190.0 / 201.0
Rushing Yards 119.6 / 143.6 49.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 349.1 / 293.8 239.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.5 4.1 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAC
KC
LAC
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 0 minutes ago
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 5 hours, 43 minutes ago
Rams' Special Teams Crisis: A 2026 Season Breakdown and How to F…
si 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 5 hours, 46 minutes ago