Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Jaguars NYJ @ JAX

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

3-10  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

9-4  |  Home

48
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
JETS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Jacksonville)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

6.7%

Jaguars Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

NYJ By 1-6 points

3.8%

NYJ By 7-13 points

1.8%

JAX By 1-6 points

7.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
NEW YORK
28
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 NYJ @ JAX 20 - 48
Dec 15, 2024 NYJ @ JAX 32 - 25
Dec 22, 2022 JAX @ NYJ 19 - 3
Dec 26, 2021 JAX @ NYJ 21 - 26
Oct 27, 2019 NYJ @ JAX 15 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.5% more
Jacksonville: 214.6 vs New York: 148.5
First Downs (L5) +39.0% more
Jacksonville: 20.2 vs New York: 14.5
Total Yards (L5) +30.3% more
Jacksonville: 324.9 vs New York: 249.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.2% more
Jacksonville: 5.2 vs New York: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 7.0 20
JAX Score 28.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 14.5 24.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 214.6 / 148.5 330.0 / 154.0
Rushing Yards 110.2 / 100.7 108.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 324.9 / 249.3 438.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.2 7.4 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
NYJ
JAX
NYJ
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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