Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Texans ARI @ HOU

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-10  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

8-5  |  Home

40
Key Game
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Chad Ryland None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
CARDINALS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

41.5%

Texans Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

ARI By 1-6 points

15.3%

ARI By 7-13 points

12.9%

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
ARIZONA
27
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
23
ARIZONA
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o42.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u42.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 ARI @ HOU 20 - 40
Nov 19, 2023 ARI @ HOU 16 - 21
Oct 24, 2021 HOU @ ARI 5 - 31
Nov 19, 2017 ARI @ HOU 21 - 31
Nov 10, 2013 HOU @ ARI 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.5% more
Houston: 97.5 vs Arizona: 73.0
Turnovers (L5) +67.4% more
Arizona: 1.3 vs Houston: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Arizona: 280.6 vs Houston: 213.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.3% more
Arizona: 5.4 vs Houston: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 24.0 20
HOU Score 27.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 20.9 23.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 213.8 / 280.6 256.0 / 235.0
Rushing Yards 97.5 / 73.0 143.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 311.3 / 353.6 399.0 / 307.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.4 6.3 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARI
HOU
ARI
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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