Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Seahawks IND @ SEA

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

8-5  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 4:25 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

10-3  |  Home

18
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
COLTS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Seattle)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 SeahawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

2.3%

Seahawks Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

IND By 1-6 points

1.4%

IND By 7-13 points

0.5%

SEA By 1-6 points

3.8%

SEA By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
INDIANAPOLIS
38
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
27
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (-13) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 IND @ SEA 16 - 18
Sep 12, 2021 SEA @ IND 28 - 16
Oct 1, 2017 IND @ SEA 18 - 46
Oct 6, 2013 SEA @ IND 28 - 34
Oct 4, 2009 SEA @ IND 17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.9% more
Seattle: 127.2 vs Indianapolis: 113.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 10.0 16
SEA Score 38.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 19.1 15.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 210.1 / 208.3 264.0 / 118.0
Rushing Yards 127.2 / 113.6 50.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 337.3 / 321.9 314.0 / 220.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.4 5.3 / 3.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
SEA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
SEA
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
IND
SEA
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 1-1-2
25% 1-3
50% 1-1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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