Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Saints CAR @ NO

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

7-6  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 4:25 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

3-10  |  Home

20
Key Game
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
@
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Sam Martin None-None
Charlie Smyth None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
PANTHERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Orleans)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

47.2%

Saints Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

CAR By 1-6 points

16.1%

CAR By 7-13 points

14.6%

NO By 1-6 points

16.7%

NO By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
CAROLINA
21
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 CAR @ NO 17 - 20
Nov 9, 2025 NO @ CAR 17 - 7
Nov 3, 2024 NO @ CAR 22 - 23
Sep 8, 2024 CAR @ NO 10 - 47
Dec 10, 2023 CAR @ NO 6 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +73.0% more
New Orleans: 1.6 vs Carolina: 0.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.8% more
Carolina: 5.4 vs New Orleans: 4.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.4% more
Carolina: 116.7 vs New Orleans: 101.1
Total Yards (L5) +10.2% more
Carolina: 318.0 vs New Orleans: 285.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 20.0 17
NO Score 21.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 16.8 27.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 184.6 / 201.3 256.0 / 154.0
Rushing Yards 101.1 / 116.7 81.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 285.7 / 318.0 337.0 / 281.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.4 5.3 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CAR
NO
CAR
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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