Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Rams DET @ LAR

DETROIT

LIONSDET

8-5  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 4:25 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

10-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
LIONS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 RamsLAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

38.8%

Rams Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

DET By 1-6 points

14.7%

DET By 7-13 points

12.1%

LAR By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAR By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DETROIT
31
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 DET @ LAR 34 - 41
Sep 8, 2024 LAR @ DET 20 - 26
Jan 14, 2024 LAR @ DET 23 - 24
Oct 24, 2021 DET @ LAR 19 - 28
Dec 2, 2018 LAR @ DET 30 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Detroit: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +21.0% more
Los Angeles: 24.4 vs Detroit: 20.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.6% more
Los Angeles: 162.9 vs Detroit: 135.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 27.0 34
LAR Score 31.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 20.1 30.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 246.4 / 264.5 360.0 / 326.0
Rushing Yards 162.9 / 135.1 159.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 409.3 / 399.5 519.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.8 / 6.6 7.5 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
DET
LAR
DET
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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