Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Broncos GB @ DEN

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

9-3-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

11-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
PACKERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

41.5%

Broncos Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

GB By 1-6 points

15.3%

GB By 7-13 points

12.9%

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
GREEN BAY
20
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
GREEN BAY
27
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 GB @ DEN 26 - 34
Oct 22, 2023 GB @ DEN 17 - 19
Sep 22, 2019 DEN @ GB 16 - 27
Nov 1, 2015 GB @ DEN 10 - 29
Oct 2, 2011 DEN @ GB 23 - 49
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.8% more
Denver: 21.4 vs Green Bay: 18.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.1% more
Denver: 235.5 vs Green Bay: 208.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.0% more
Green Bay: 5.8 vs Denver: 5.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Green Bay: 122.3 vs Denver: 112.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 17.0 26
DEN Score 20.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 18.8 21.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 235.5 / 208.3 302.0 / 247.0
Rushing Yards 112.5 / 122.3 89.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.36 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 348.0 / 330.6 391.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.8 6.0 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
GB
DEN
GB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
100% 4-0
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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