Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Cowboys MIN @ DAL

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

5-8  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 8:20 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

6-6-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Myles Price
KEY GAME

Myles Price

#4 | Wide Receiver
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Myles Price None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
VIKINGS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

47.2%

Cowboys Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.1%

DAL By 1-6 points

16.1%

DAL By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
28
MINNESOTA
27
DALLAS
Simulated Score
24
MINNESOTA
27
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 MIN @ DAL 34 - 26
Nov 20, 2022 DAL @ MIN 40 - 3
Oct 31, 2021 DAL @ MIN 20 - 16
Nov 22, 2020 DAL @ MIN 31 - 28
Nov 10, 2019 MIN @ DAL 28 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs Dallas: 1.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +127.5% more
Dallas: 304.6 vs Minnesota: 133.9
Total Yards (L5) +68.4% more
Dallas: 418.6 vs Minnesota: 248.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +38.9% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs Minnesota: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 28.0 34
DAL Score 27.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 17.3 25.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 304.6 / 133.9 285.0 / 250.0
Rushing Yards 114.0 / 114.6 138.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.17 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 418.6 / 248.5 423.0 / 327.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.1 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 4.4 6.1 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
DAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIN
DAL
MIN
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 11 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 7 hours, 12 minutes ago
Colorado Buffaloes' NFL Draft Hopes Dim for Five Players Amid Th…
si 7 hours, 21 minutes ago