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ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

4-9  |  Road

29
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

7-6  |  Home

28
Key Game
Mike Ford Jr.
KEY GAME

Mike Ford Jr.

#28 | Cornerback
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Mike Ford Jr. None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
FALCONS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tampa Bay)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

38.8%

Buccaneers Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

ATL By 1-6 points

14.7%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.1%

TB By 1-6 points

17.0%

TB By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16
ATLANTA
20
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 36.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 ATL @ TB 29 - 28
Sep 7, 2025 TB @ ATL 23 - 20
Oct 27, 2024 ATL @ TB 31 - 26
Oct 3, 2024 TB @ ATL 30 - 36
Dec 10, 2023 TB @ ATL 29 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Turnovers (L5) +41.4% more
Atlanta: 1.6 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Atlanta: 187.6 vs Tampa Bay: 152.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.2% more
Atlanta: 5.2 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 16.0 29
TB Score 20.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 18.5 28.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 152.5 / 187.6 250.0 / 365.0
Rushing Yards 137.5 / 128.7 88.0 / 111.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.44 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 290.0 / 316.3 338.0 / 476.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.2 5.5 / 7.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATL
TB
ATL
ML
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
0% 0-4
ATS
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0-1
0% 0-4
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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