Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Bears NORF @ BAY

NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

4-6  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

6-2  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
SPARTANS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Baylor)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

0.0%

Bears Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

NORF By 1-7 points

0.0%

NORF By 8-14 points

0.0%

BAY By 1-7 points

0.1%

BAY By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
55
NORFOLK STATE
92
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
56
NORFOLK STATE
88
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 NORF @ BAY 67 - 97
Dec 11, 2024 NORF @ BAY 69 - 94
Nov 11, 2022 NORF @ BAY 70 - 87
Mar 17, 2022 NORF @ BAY 49 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.4% more
Baylor: 6.9 vs Norfolk State: 5.6
Assists (L5) +23.9% more
Baylor: 13.8 vs Norfolk State: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5) +23.3%
Baylor: 74.1% vs Norfolk State: 50.8%
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
Baylor: 40.7 vs Norfolk State: 36.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 55.0 67
BAY Score 92.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 32.2 38.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.8 / 11.2 23.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.6 10.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 49.5 53.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 50.8 81.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 36.4 42.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.6 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.9 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
BAY Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
NORF
BAY
NORF
ML
58% 19-14
67% 20-10
53% 17-15
71% 20-8
ATS
58% 19-14
63% 19-11
53% 17-15
72% 21-8
TTL
45% 15-18
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
yahoo 2 weeks, 5 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Virginia Set for Friday Night Blowout Against Norfolk State, Ana…
si 4 weeks ago
Baylor Position-by-Position Preview: Can the Bears Avenge Auburn…
si 1 month ago
KU Football 2026 Schedule Breakdown: A Deep Dive into the Jayhaw…
kusports 1 month, 2 weeks ago