COLGATE
RAIDERSCOLG
6-4 | Road
77
ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
9-1 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
BONNIES
0%
RAIDERS
--
BONNIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SBU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)
COLG By 1-7 points
3.3%
COLG By 8-14 points
0.6%
SBU By 1-7 points
12.2%
SBU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Colgate
62
COLGATE
St. Bonaventure
79
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
Colgate
68
COLGATE
St. Bonaventure
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bonnies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bonnies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bonnies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Bonnies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 10, 2025
COLG @ SBU
77 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+56.1% more
St. Bonaventure: 10.2
vs
Colgate: 6.5
Blocks (L5)
+54.0% more
St. Bonaventure: 5.3
vs
Colgate: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+22.2% more
St. Bonaventure: 13.3
vs
Colgate: 10.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
St. Bonaventure: 38.3%
vs
Colgate: 35.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COLG Score
62.0
77
SBU Score
79.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 35.6
21.0 / 24.0
Assists
18.4 / 18.7
19.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 54.4
48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 74.4
79.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 38.0
42.0 / 36.0
Steals
10.2 / 6.5
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 10.9
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
SBU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
SBU
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +4.9
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
COLG
SBU
COLG
ML
59%
20-14
59%
19-13
61%
20-13
69%
22-10
ATS
50%
17-17
72%
23-9
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
TTL
38%
13-21
78%
25-7
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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