ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
1-9 | Road
84
TULSA
GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA
8-1 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
GOLDEN LIONS
--
GOLDEN HURRICANE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Tulsa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)
UAPB By 1-7 points
4.0%
UAPB By 8-14 points
0.8%
TLSA By 1-7 points
13.7%
TLSA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
50
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Tulsa
66
TULSA
Simulated Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
61
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Tulsa
78
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 10, 2025
UAPB @ TLSA
84 - 117
Nov 9, 2024
UAPB @ TLSA
80 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+29.2% more
Tulsa: 43.0
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 33.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Tulsa: 38.7%
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 32.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Tulsa: 48.0%
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 42.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Tulsa: 79.0%
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 73.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score
50.0
84
TLSA Score
66.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 32.1
50.0 / 32.0
Assists
17.7 / 16.6
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.1 / 4.6
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 42.8
57.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 73.7
84.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 33.3
33.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.5 / 6.4
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 15.2
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
TLSA
Advantage
30-8-0
(79.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
TLSA
Advantage
20-15-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UAPB
TLSA
UAPB
ML
66%
25-13
74%
23-8
64%
23-13
73%
19-7
ATS
74%
28-10
73%
22-8-1
64%
23-13
73%
19-7
TTL
58%
22-16
68%
21-10
100%
36-0
100%
26-0