Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Aztecs LAM @ SDSU

LAMAR

CARDINALSLAM

5-4  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

5-3  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
CARDINALS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (San Diego State)
CardinalsLAM (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

21.2%

Aztecs Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

LAM By 1-7 points

13.7%

LAM By 8-14 points

4.8%

SDSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
LAMAR
65
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
56
LAMAR
78
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 LAM @ SDSU 71 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.7% more
San Diego State: 13.4 vs Lamar: 11.1
Free Throw % (L5) +17.8%
San Diego State: 79.4% vs Lamar: 61.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
San Diego State: 37.8% vs Lamar: 31.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
San Diego State: 47.5% vs Lamar: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAM Score 57.0 71
SDSU Score 65.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 31.3 44.0 / 40.0
Assists 16.0 / 15.1 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.2 / 6.3 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 42.4 48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 61.6 74.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 36.6 40.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.1 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 11.1 13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -1.1
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
LAM
SDSU
LAM
ML
62% 20-12
55% 16-13
72% 23-9
59% 17-12
ATS
69% 22-10
52% 15-14
72% 23-9
60% 18-12
TTL
75% 24-8
72% 21-8
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…
headtopics 6 days, 19 hours ago
UCLA's Second-Half Surge Over San Diego State: Wayne Knight Shin…
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago
Deion Sanders Blames Personnel, Not Scheme, for Colorado's Speci…
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
UCLA vs. San Diego State: Key Matchups to Watch as Bruins Aim fo…
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
Lamont Lester Jr.'s Big 12 Honor Highlights Colorado's Defensive…
headtopics 1 month ago