UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
7-3 | Road
54
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
6-4 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
SALUKIS
0%
SKYHAWKS
--
SALUKIS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Southern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)
UTM By 1-7 points
24.3%
UTM By 8-14 points
13.7%
SIU By 1-7 points
26.2%
SIU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Martin
76
UT MARTIN
Southern Illinois
77
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
UT Martin
68
UT MARTIN
Southern Illinois
72
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Salukis
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Salukis
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Salukis (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Salukis (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 10, 2025
UTM @ SIU
54 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+9.4% more
Southern Illinois: 15.4
vs
UT Martin: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.5%
Southern Illinois: 68.6%
vs
UT Martin: 61.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Southern Illinois: 48.5%
vs
UT Martin: 41.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Southern Illinois: 32.0%
vs
UT Martin: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTM Score
76.0
54
SIU Score
77.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 28.8
38.0 / 25.0
Assists
15.4 / 14.1
18.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 41.4
57.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
68.6 / 61.1
67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 44.6
36.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.8 / 9.0
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 13.5
13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
SIU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
SIU
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
UTM
SIU
UTM
ML
53%
17-15
69%
22-10
47%
15-17
69%
20-9
ATS
56%
18-14
56%
18-14
47%
15-17
69%
20-9
TTL
53%
17-15
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
