Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Mastodons EMU @ PFW

EASTERN MICHIGAN

EAGLESEMU

6-5  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Coliseum (IN)
View Odds Details →

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

6-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
MASTODONS
0%
EAGLES --
MASTODONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
EaglesEMU (-3.5) 0 MastodonsPFW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

9.7%

Mastodons Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PFW -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)

EMU By 1-7 points

6.8%

EMU By 8-14 points

1.7%

PFW By 1-7 points

18.6%

PFW By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
EASTERN MICHIGAN
75
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
69
EASTERN MICHIGAN
76
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mastodons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mastodons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mastodons (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Mastodons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 EMU @ PFW 65 - 80
Dec 15, 2024 PFW @ EMU 99 - 76
Nov 22, 2022 PFW @ EMU 74 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +21.7% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 10.4 vs Eastern Michigan: 8.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 42.1% vs Eastern Michigan: 36.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 49.6% vs Eastern Michigan: 45.5%
Rebounding (L5) +12.1% more
Eastern Michigan: 37.7 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 62.0 65
PFW Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 36.1 36.0 / 36.0
Assists 16.0 / 16.1 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 45.5 50.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 74.9 83.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 37.7 34.0 / 26.0
Steals 10.4 / 8.6 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 12.2 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
20-10-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
PFW
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -3.6
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
EMU
PFW
EMU
ML
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
70% 21-9
ATS
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
70% 21-9
TTL
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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