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DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

6-4  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 9:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

7-3  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
DUKES --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Boise State)
DukesDUQ (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

2.9%

Broncos Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

DUQ By 1-7 points

2.2%

DUQ By 8-14 points

0.4%

BOIS By 1-7 points

9.3%

BOIS By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
61
DUQUESNE
80
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
68
DUQUESNE
75
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 DUQ @ BOIS 64 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Boise State: 42.2 vs Duquesne: 36.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Boise State: 76.0% vs Duquesne: 71.0%
Steals (L5) +40.8% more
Duquesne: 7.7 vs Boise State: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Duquesne: 15.7 vs Boise State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 61.0 64
BOIS Score 80.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 38.4 57.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.4 / 17.0 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.0 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 50.6 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 71.0 90.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 36.3 38.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.5 / 7.7 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 15.7 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
DUQ
BOIS
DUQ
ML
50% 16-16
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
58% 18-13
ATS
50% 16-16
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
58% 18-13
TTL
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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