Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Matadors FRES @ CSUN

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

6-5  |  Road

87
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 10:00 PM ET
Premier America Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

5-5  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
MATADORS
0%
BULLDOGS --
MATADORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 MatadorsCSUN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

11.5%

Matadors Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)

FRES By 1-7 points

8.0%

FRES By 8-14 points

2.2%

CSUN By 1-7 points

20.1%

CSUN By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
59
FRESNO STATE
71
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
72
FRESNO STATE
68
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Matadors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Matadors (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 FRES @ CSUN 87 - 89
Dec 7, 2022 CSUN @ FRES 56 - 65
Dec 4, 2021 CSUN @ FRES 43 - 61
Nov 30, 2019 FRES @ CSUN 72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 15.1 vs Fresno State: 13.6
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Cal State Northridge: 6.9 vs Fresno State: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Cal State Northridge: 29.6% vs Fresno State: 25.6%
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
Fresno State: 1.7 vs Cal State Northridge: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 59.0 87
CSUN Score 71.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 25.6 40.0 / 45.0
Assists 15.1 / 13.6 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.2 / 1.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 41.9 55.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 63.9 / 71.5 93.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 38.1 31.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.4 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 14.5 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
CSUN Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
CSUN
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
FRES
CSUN
FRES
ML
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
ATS
58% 19-14
75% 24-8
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
TTL
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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