NEW MEXICO
LOBOSUNM
7-2 | Road
81
VCU
RAMSVCU
6-3 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
100%
RAMS
0%
LOBOS
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (VCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VCU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)
UNM By 1-7 points
21.6%
UNM By 8-14 points
10.7%
VCU By 1-7 points
27.2%
VCU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New Mexico
79
NEW MEXICO
VCU
82
VCU
Simulated Score
New Mexico
71
NEW MEXICO
VCU
74
VCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rams
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rams
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rams (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Rams (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 10, 2025
UNM @ VCU
81 - 78
Dec 18, 2024
VCU @ UNM
71 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.5% more
VCU: 12.5
vs
New Mexico: 11.1
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
VCU: 41.6
vs
New Mexico: 38.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
VCU: 39.0%
vs
New Mexico: 37.4%
Blocks (L5)
+25.3% more
New Mexico: 4.2
vs
VCU: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNM Score
79.0
81
VCU Score
82.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 37.4
27.0 / 44.0
Assists
14.1 / 18.1
11.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.2
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 49.5
39.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
67.5 / 78.3
82.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 38.3
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.5
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 11.1
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
26-11-0
(70.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
VCU
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3%
Total +/-: +2.1
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VCU
UNM
VCU
UNM
ML
72%
26-10
57%
21-16
67%
22-11
74%
25-9
ATS
81%
29-7
57%
21-16
67%
22-11
74%
25-9
TTL
58%
21-15
41%
15-22
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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