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LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

6-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

6-3  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
FLAMES --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (NC State)
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

1.4%

Wolfpack Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

LIB By 1-7 points

1.1%

LIB By 8-14 points

0.1%

NCSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

NCSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
57
LIBERTY
79
NC STATE
Simulated Score
71
LIBERTY
76
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 LIB @ NCSU 45 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +17.1%
NC State: 79.0% vs Liberty: 61.9%
Blocks (L5) +20.7% more
Liberty: 4.0 vs NC State: 3.2
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
Liberty: 19.5 vs NC State: 16.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Liberty: 42.6% vs NC State: 35.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 57.0 45
NCSU Score 79.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 42.6 42.0 / 21.0
Assists 16.7 / 19.5 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 52.9 52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 61.9 68.0 / 30.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 30.3 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.2 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 9.6 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
LIB
NCSU
LIB
ML
59% 20-14
50% 17-17
55% 18-15
53% 18-16
ATS
71% 24-10
62% 21-13
55% 18-15
53% 18-16
TTL
71% 24-10
41% 14-20
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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