PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
14-10 | Road
89
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
23-1 | Home
138
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
OKC By 1-7 points
0.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u221.5
Loss
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+82.6% more
Oklahoma City: 4.2
vs
Phoenix: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+22.9% more
Oklahoma City: 28.8
vs
Phoenix: 23.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.1%
Oklahoma City: 44.0%
vs
Phoenix: 31.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
Oklahoma City: 42.9
vs
Phoenix: 39.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
75.0
89
OKC Score
125.0
138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.0 / 31.9
55.0 / 32.0
Assists
28.8 / 23.5
32.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.3
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
55.1 / 45.8
59.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 71.0
92.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 39.1
43.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.9 / 10.8
14.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 11.8
15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70%
80-34
57%
60-45
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
59-43-3
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
61-42-2
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…