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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

16-11-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

15-10-3  |  Home

1
Goaltending
J.J. Moser
GOALTENDER

J.J. Moser

#90 | Defense
@
Sam Montembeault
GOALTENDER

Sam Montembeault

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
J.J. Moser None-None -- -- --
Sam Montembeault None-None 4.50 0.769 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 4.50
-- Save % 0.769
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
CANADIENS
0%
LIGHTNING --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Canadiens Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MTL @ TB 2 - 1
May 1, 2026 TB @ MTL 1 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 MTL @ TB 3 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 TB @ MTL 3 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 TB @ MTL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +50.6% more
Montreal: 13.5 vs Tampa Bay: 9.0
Hits (L5) +26.0% more
Montreal: 20.9 vs Tampa Bay: 16.6
Power Play % (L5) +25.0%
Montreal: 32.8% vs Tampa Bay: 7.8%
Takeaways (L5) +26.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.9 vs Montreal: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.0 6
MTL Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.5 / 9.0 18.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 45.7 / 48.3 69.8 / 30.2
Hits 20.9 / 16.6 24.0 / 27.0
Power Play % 32.8 / 7.8 25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 27.5 / 31.3 27.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 4.9 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
64%MONEY36%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
TB
MTL
TB
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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