Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Cavaliers UMES @ UVA

MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

4-8  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

8-1  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
HAWKS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Virginia)
HawksUMES (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

27.4%

Cavaliers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UMES By 1-7 points

16.9%

UMES By 8-14 points

6.8%

UVA By 1-7 points

26.8%

UVA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
51
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
57
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
41
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 UMES @ UVA 60 - 84
Nov 25, 2022 UMES @ UVA 45 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.8% more
Virginia: 5.6 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 3.0
Steals (L5) +40.4% more
Virginia: 6.0 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +32.6% more
Virginia: 39.7 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 29.9
Assists (L5) +12.5% more
Virginia: 18.0 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 16.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMES Score 51.0 60
UVA Score 57.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 47.5 / 36.9 42.0 / 25.0
Assists 18.0 / 16.0 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.0 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.9 / 52.0 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 69.0 73.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 29.9 32.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.0 / 4.3 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 15.1 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
UMES
UVA
UMES
ML
67% 24-12
66% 21-11
72% 26-10
81% 21-5
ATS
75% 27-9
69% 22-10
72% 26-10
81% 21-5
TTL
53% 19-17
66% 21-11
100% 36-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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