BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
9-1 | Road
83
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
6-4 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
RETRIEVERS
100%
BULLS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUF -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1-7 points
18.6%
BUF By 8-14 points
26.8%
UMBC By 1-7 points
6.8%
UMBC By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
80
BUFFALO
UMBC
67
UMBC
Simulated Score
Buffalo
75
BUFFALO
UMBC
78
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulls (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
BUF @ UMBC
83 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+45.4% more
Buffalo: 7.4
vs
UMBC: 4.0
Blocks (L5)
+32.3% more
UMBC: 4.9
vs
Buffalo: 3.7
Rebounding (L5)
+25.5% more
UMBC: 35.6
vs
Buffalo: 28.4
Assists (L5)
+11.9% more
UMBC: 14.9
vs
Buffalo: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
80.0
83
UMBC Score
67.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 37.7
35.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.9 / 13.3
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.9 / 3.7
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 47.7
53.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 73.3
100.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 28.4
25.0 / 27.0
Steals
4.0 / 7.4
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 12.1
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
BUF
UMBC
BUF
ML
58%
18-13
45%
14-17
55%
17-14
45%
14-17
ATS
68%
21-10
55%
17-14
55%
17-14
45%
14-17
TTL
39%
12-19
48%
15-16
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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