Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Wildcats NCCU @ UK

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

3-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Rupp Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

5-4  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
EAGLES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Kentucky)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

18.4%

Wildcats Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

NCCU By 1-7 points

12.2%

NCCU By 8-14 points

4.0%

UK By 1-7 points

24.3%

UK By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
83
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
62
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
88
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+42.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 NCCU @ UK 67 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.2% more
Kentucky: 15.2 vs North Carolina Central: 13.3
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
Kentucky: 37.3 vs North Carolina Central: 33.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Kentucky: 41.4% vs North Carolina Central: 38.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Kentucky: 26.0% vs North Carolina Central: 24.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 74.0 67
UK Score 83.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.0 / 24.2 41.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.2 / 13.3 27.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.7 / 5.0 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 38.9 61.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 74.0 93.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 33.2 36.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.5 / 11.1 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.1 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UK Advantage
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
NCCU
UK
NCCU
ML
71% 25-10
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
81% 22-5
ATS
83% 29-6
71% 22-9
72% 23-9
81% 22-5
TTL
63% 22-13
55% 17-14
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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