Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Blue Demons MORG @ DEP

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

1-8  |  Road

49
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 8:00 PM ET
Wintrust Arena
View Odds Details →

DEPAUL

BLUE DEMONSDEP

7-3  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BLUE DEMONS
0%
BEARS --
BLUE DEMONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DEPAUL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (DePaul)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 Blue DemonsDEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

13.6%

Blue Demons Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEP -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEP)

MORG By 1-7 points

9.3%

MORG By 8-14 points

2.7%

DEP By 1-7 points

21.6%

DEP By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
72
MORGAN STATE
83
DEPAUL
Simulated Score
62
MORGAN STATE
78
DEPAUL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Demons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Demons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Demons (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Blue Demons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 MORG @ DEP 49 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.8% more
DePaul: 15.5 vs Morgan State: 12.6
Steals (L5) +14.0% more
DePaul: 6.3 vs Morgan State: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
DePaul: 28.6% vs Morgan State: 23.2%
Blocks (L5) +24.0% more
Morgan State: 3.0 vs DePaul: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 72.0 49
DEP Score 83.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.6 / 23.2 50.0 / 19.0
Assists 15.5 / 12.6 21.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.0 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 43.3 57.0 / 20.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 77.9 78.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 29.9 32.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.5 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.1 9.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
DEP Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
DEP Advantage
18-12-2 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEP
MORG
DEP
MORG
ML
59% 19-13
50% 14-14
80% 24-6
58% 14-10
ATS
50% 16-16
50% 14-14
80% 24-6
58% 14-10
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 14-14
100% 30-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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