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COLUMBIA

LIONSCOLU

9-2  |  Road

73
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

7-3  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
SEAWOLVES
0%
LIONS --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
STONY BROOK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Stony Brook)
LionsCOLU (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

42.1%

Seawolves Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STBK -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STBK)

COLU By 1-7 points

23.0%

COLU By 8-14 points

12.2%

STBK By 1-7 points

26.8%

STBK By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
53
COLUMBIA
55
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
69
COLUMBIA
73
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seawolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seawolves (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 COLU @ STBK 73 - 77
Nov 23, 2024 STBK @ COLU 63 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.6% more
Stony Brook: 7.1 vs Columbia: 5.6
Assists (L5) +32.3% more
Columbia: 18.0 vs Stony Brook: 12.2
Rebounding (L5) +28.4% more
Columbia: 45.0 vs Stony Brook: 32.2
Turnovers (L5) +17.8% more
Columbia: 12.4 vs Stony Brook: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLU Score 53.0 73
STBK Score 55.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 38.5 33.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.2 / 18.0 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.6 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 51.8 42.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 75.0 67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 45.0 40.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.6 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.4 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLU Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
STBK
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLU
13-13-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: -1.1
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
COLU
STBK
COLU
ML
61% 19-12
44% 12-15
71% 22-9
56% 15-12
ATS
61% 19-12
59% 16-11
71% 22-9
56% 15-12
TTL
65% 20-11
74% 20-7
100% 31-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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