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LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

2-8  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

4-5  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
BEACH --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San José State)
BeachLBSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beach Cover

42.1%

Spartans Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

LBSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

LBSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

SJSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SJSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
71
LONG BEACH STATE
73
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
68
LONG BEACH STATE
72
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 LBSU @ SJSU 83 - 89
Nov 27, 2024 SJSU @ LBSU 82 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.9% more
San José State: 14.1 vs Long Beach State: 10.6
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
San José State: 39.1 vs Long Beach State: 33.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
San José State: 35.8% vs Long Beach State: 32.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
San José State: 71.6% vs Long Beach State: 69.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score 71.0 83
SJSU Score 73.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 32.9 45.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.5 / 13.9 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.6 / 2.1 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 44.0 56.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 69.0 74.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 33.1 25.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.8 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 10.6 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
LBSU
SJSU
LBSU
ML
73% 24-9
55% 17-14
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
ATS
73% 24-9
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 19-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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