Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Wolverines VILL @ MICH

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

7-2  |  Road

61
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 6:30 PM ET
Crisler Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

9-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
WILDCATS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Michigan)
WildcatsVILL (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

2.3%

Wolverines Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

VILL By 1-7 points

1.7%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.3%

MICH By 1-7 points

8.0%

MICH By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
35
VILLANOVA
55
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
VILLANOVA
72
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 90.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 VILL @ MICH 61 - 89
Mar 24, 2022 MICH @ VILL 55 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +228.9% more
Michigan: 6.7 vs Villanova: 2.0
Assists (L5) +33.0% more
Michigan: 22.6 vs Villanova: 17.0
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Michigan: 12.4 vs Villanova: 9.9
Rebounding (L5) +15.6% more
Michigan: 44.4 vs Villanova: 38.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 35.0 61
MICH Score 55.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 39.6 27.0 / 27.0
Assists 22.6 / 17.0 17.0 / 6.0
Blocks 6.7 / 2.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 54.9 / 50.4 48.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 68.6 56.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 38.4 53.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.8 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.9 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
VILL
MICH
VILL
ML
78% 31-9
44% 14-18
63% 24-14
72% 23-9
ATS
78% 31-9
56% 18-14
63% 24-14
72% 23-9
TTL
57% 23-17
41% 13-19
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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