Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Mountaineers LR @ WVU

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

2-7  |  Road

58
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

7-3  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
TROJANS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (West Virginia)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

46.0%

Mountaineers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WVU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

LR By 1-7 points

24.3%

LR By 8-14 points

13.7%

WVU By 1-7 points

26.2%

WVU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
56
LITTLE ROCK
57
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
62
LITTLE ROCK
80
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u132.5 Loss
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 LR @ WVU 58 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +34.7% more
West Virginia: 38.6 vs Little Rock: 28.6
Free Throw % (L5) +19.2%
West Virginia: 69.3% vs Little Rock: 50.2%
Turnovers (L5) +19.7% more
Little Rock: 14.9 vs West Virginia: 12.0
Steals (L5) +17.6% more
Little Rock: 8.6 vs West Virginia: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 56.0 58
WVU Score 57.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 37.2 50.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.5 / 13.0 22.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 45.0 56.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 50.2 53.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 28.6 42.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 14.9 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
LR
WVU
LR
ML
63% 22-13
52% 16-15
76% 26-8
68% 17-8
ATS
60% 21-14
45% 14-17
76% 26-8
68% 17-8
TTL
40% 14-21
58% 18-13
100% 34-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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