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SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

JACKRABBITSSDST

5-5  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

3-6  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
JACKRABBITS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Ball State)
JackrabbitsSDST (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jackrabbits Cover

6.7%

Cardinals Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BALL -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

SDST By 1-7 points

4.8%

SDST By 8-14 points

1.1%

BALL By 1-7 points

15.3%

BALL By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
78
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
72
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
75
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 SDST @ BALL 68 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +211.0% more
Ball State: 3.0 vs South Dakota State: 0.9
Turnovers (L5) +16.8% more
Ball State: 12.4 vs South Dakota State: 10.6
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Ball State: 12.5 vs South Dakota State: 11.4
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Ball State: 7.6 vs South Dakota State: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDST Score 63.0 68
BALL Score 78.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 29.2 22.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.5 / 11.4 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.0 / 0.9 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 36.8 / 43.1 36.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 70.8 70.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 35.6 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.0 10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 10.6 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
SDST
BALL
SDST
ML
43% 13-17
75% 24-8
62% 18-11
53% 17-15
ATS
67% 20-10
78% 25-7
62% 18-11
53% 17-15
TTL
50% 15-15
53% 17-15
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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