USC
TROJANSUSC
8-1 | Road
94
SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
3-5 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
TOREROS
100%
TROJANS
--
TOREROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
USC By 1-7 points
27.4%
USC By 8-14 points
21.6%
USD By 1-7 points
20.1%
USD By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
81
USC
San Diego
77
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
USC
65
USC
San Diego
78
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toreros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Toreros (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
USC @ USD
94 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
USC: 4.7
vs
San Diego: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+12.0% more
USC: 33.7
vs
San Diego: 29.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.7%
USC: 38.4%
vs
San Diego: 27.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
USC: 46.7%
vs
San Diego: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
81.0
94
USD Score
77.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.7 / 38.4
30.0 / 56.0
Assists
14.0 / 13.3
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.7
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 46.7
39.0 / 62.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 75.4
83.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
29.7 / 33.7
32.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.5
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 11.7
14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
USC
USD
USC
ML
58%
19-14
52%
16-15
70%
23-10
58%
18-13
ATS
55%
18-15
68%
21-10
70%
23-10
58%
18-13
TTL
61%
20-13
68%
21-10
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…
Big Ten Road Warriors: Historic Saturday Shakes Up Conference Po…
Heat Fill Training Camp Roster with Rookie Signings, Keep Option…
College Football's Unmasked Flaws: Texas A&M, USC, Arkansas Amon…
College Football Shake-Up: Texas A&M, USC, and Others Exposed in…