Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Sun Devils NAU @ ASU

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

4-4  |  Road

48
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

7-2  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
SUN DEVILS
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona State)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

38.2%

Sun Devils Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ASU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

NAU By 1-7 points

21.6%

NAU By 8-14 points

10.7%

ASU By 1-7 points

27.2%

ASU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
88
NORTHERN ARIZONA
91
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
62
NORTHERN ARIZONA
78
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 NAU @ ASU 48 - 73
Nov 10, 2022 NAU @ ASU 68 - 84
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Arizona State: 43.5% vs Northern Arizona: 35.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Arizona State: 74.4% vs Northern Arizona: 67.1%
Steals (L5) +22.1% more
Northern Arizona: 8.7 vs Arizona State: 6.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
Northern Arizona: 34.8 vs Arizona State: 31.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 88.0 48
ASU Score 91.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.5 / 35.0 32.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.5 / 12.1 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.0 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 47.0 50.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 67.1 68.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 34.8 41.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.7 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 12.0 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
NAU
ASU
NAU
ML
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
81% 26-6
ATS
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
81% 26-6
TTL
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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