VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
14-6-8 | Road
4
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
16-11-3 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Carter Hart
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | None-None | 3.76 | 0.852 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 3.69 | 0.892 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.76
GAA
Ldr 3.69
0.852
Save %
Ldr 0.892
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
VGK By 1 goal
12.1%
VGK By 2-3 goals
9.3%
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
VGK @ NYI
4 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
NYI @ VGK
4 - 3
Feb 4, 2025
VGK @ NYI
1 - 2
Jan 9, 2025
NYI @ VGK
4 - 0
Jan 23, 2024
VGK @ NYI
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+21.2% more
New York: 20.8
vs
Vegas: 17.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+14.9% more
New York: 17.7
vs
Vegas: 15.4
Takeaways (L5)
+33.3% more
Vegas: 5.3
vs
New York: 3.5
Power Play % (L5)
+16.1%
Vegas: 30.5%
vs
New York: 14.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
3.0
4
NYI Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.7 / 15.4
10.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
47.9 / 51.0
52.0 / 48.0
Hits
20.8 / 17.2
24.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
14.4 / 30.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.2 / 27.8
27.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 5.3
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
VGK
NYI
VGK
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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