Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Longhorns SOU @ TEX

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

4-5  |  Road

69
FINAL
Mon, Dec 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Moody Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

LONGHORNSTEX

7-3  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
LONGHORNS
0%
JAGUARS --
LONGHORNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Texas)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 LonghornsTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

34.5%

Longhorns Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TEX -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

SOU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SOU By 8-14 points

9.3%

TEX By 1-7 points

27.4%

TEX By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SOUTHERN
73
TEXAS
Simulated Score
62
SOUTHERN
85
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Longhorns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Longhorns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Longhorns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Longhorns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 8, 2025 SOU @ TEX 69 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Texas: 72.4% vs Southern: 68.4%
Steals (L5) +56.3% more
Southern: 12.6 vs Texas: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +43.7% more
Southern: 4.7 vs Texas: 2.7
Assists (L5) +26.7% more
Southern: 18.9 vs Texas: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 69.0 69
TEX Score 73.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 35.4 40.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.9 / 18.9 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.7 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 50.6 57.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 68.4 91.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 40.4 37.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.5 / 12.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 13.1 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
TEX Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
TEX Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SOU
TEX
SOU
ML
58% 21-15
67% 22-11
56% 19-15
70% 21-9
ATS
56% 20-16
64% 21-12
56% 19-15
70% 21-9
TTL
64% 23-13
42% 14-19
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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