SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
6-17 | Road
105
INDIANA
PACERSIND
5-18 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
PACERS
0%
KINGS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
SAC By 1-7 points
6.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
1.7%
IND By 1-7 points
18.6%
IND By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Indiana
125
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Sacramento
114
SACRAMENTO
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (-4)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
IND @ SAC
109 - 114
Dec 8, 2025
SAC @ IND
105 - 116
Mar 31, 2025
SAC @ IND
109 - 111
Dec 22, 2024
IND @ SAC
122 - 95
Feb 2, 2024
SAC @ IND
133 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+25.3% more
Indiana: 6.9
vs
Sacramento: 5.5
Turnovers (L5)
+19.5% more
Indiana: 13.8
vs
Sacramento: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Indiana: 75.5%
vs
Sacramento: 66.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Indiana: 40.7%
vs
Sacramento: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
112.0
105
IND Score
125.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 34.7
40.0 / 32.0
Assists
23.3 / 23.9
25.0 / 28.0
Blocks
6.9 / 5.5
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 47.2
44.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 66.9
93.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 39.6
41.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.8 / 10.6
14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 11.6
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
Advantage
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
SAC
IND
SAC
ML
48%
47-50
55%
55-45
54%
45-38
61%
50-32
ATS
59%
57-40
54%
52-45-3
54%
45-38
61%
50-32
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
57-42-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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