SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
15-7 | Road
135
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
3-21 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
PELICANS
100%
SPURS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
4.8%
SA By 8-14 points
13.7%
NO By 1-7 points
0.8%
NO By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
New Orleans
102
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
107
SAN ANTONIO
New Orleans
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+9)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.5
Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
NO @ SA
104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025
SA @ NO
135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025
NO @ SA
119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025
SA @ NO
120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025
NO @ SA
115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.0% more
San Antonio: 4.2
vs
New Orleans: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+10.9% more
New Orleans: 27.3
vs
San Antonio: 24.6
Steals (L5)
+8.3% more
New Orleans: 8.6
vs
San Antonio: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.4%
New Orleans: 83.0%
vs
San Antonio: 75.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
125.0
135
NO Score
102.0
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 35.6
27.0 / 47.0
Assists
27.3 / 24.6
35.0 / 29.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.2
6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 46.4
58.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
83.0 / 75.6
88.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 42.2
33.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.0
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 13.2
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
SA
NO
SA
ML
62%
98-61
60%
111-73
58%
48-35
58%
61-44
ATS
68%
107-51-1
58%
107-76-1
58%
48-35
58%
61-44
TTL
75%
119-40
74%
134-47-3
100%
83-0
100%
105-0
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